Classical probability theory assumes an equal likelihood for all outcomes. For example, if you were to flip a coin, there's an equal change of it landing on "heads" or "tails." Microsoft Excel offers ...

The conjunction and disjunction fallacies are famous for revealing the limits of human reasoning about probability. This can be measured by telling people a short story about a character and then ...

The lure of blogging is strong. Having guest-posted about problems with eternal inflation, Tom Banks couldn’t resist coming back for more punishment. Here he tackles a venerable problem: the ...