We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the ...

As a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hits many regions worldwide, a new study reports a method to monitor the effective reproduction number (Re) in near real-time. The study, published on the ...

Jeremy Rossman has received research funding from the Medical Research Council and the European Commission. He is the President of the non-profit organisation Research-Aid Networks. A few months ago, ...

Emma McBryde receives funding from the NHMRC and the MRFF. She previously worked for the Doherty Institute. Currently, only 12-15 year olds with underlying medical conditions, Aboriginal and Torres ...

Scientists from Imperial College London and the University of Cambridge, UK, have recently proposed and applied a correction to EpiEstim, a statistical method to estimate the time-dependent ...

The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown up myriad questions, including how contagious the coronavirus which causes the disease is. One common way of expressing this is what experts who study the spread of ...

A new study shows how face masks reduce the effective reproduction number of COVID-19, and why their efficacy varies between different environments under virus-limited and virus-rich conditions.

The reproductive number R describes the average number of individuals that a person infected with a particular pathogen infects. It depends on how that pathogen is transmitted as well as how often ...